বৃষ্টি (rain) in Bangladesh: Bay of Bengal low may become Cyclone Akvan by November 16

বৃষ্টি (rain) is one of the most searched words on Google in Bangladesh this Sunday morning, as people ask when the dry spell will break. The reason: a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal has strengthened into a well-marked low. Several Bangladeshi and Indian outlets, citing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), report that it may become a cyclonic storm by the evening of 16 November. If it does, it will be named Akvan.

Meteorologists quoted in the media say rain is possible in many parts of Bangladesh after 18 November as a result.

Where the low is and what may happen

According to the IMD's Saturday bulletin, the low over the southeast Bay of Bengal and nearby areas has become well marked. The forecast steps are:

1. It may intensify into a depression within the next 24 hours.
2. It is then expected to move into the central Bay of Bengal and become a cyclonic storm around the evening of 16 November.
3. If sea conditions stay favourable, it could become a severe cyclonic storm by 18 November.

The track is still unclear

The system is expected to move north-west at first, then north-north-west. Early analysis points towards the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts of India, but no weather office has confirmed where it will make landfall. The BMD also says its path is not yet clear. The picture should sharpen once it becomes a depression.

In short, there is no forecast of a direct hit on Bangladesh so far, but that possibility has not been ruled out either.

When will it rain in Bangladesh?

The BMD's 48-hour forecast issued on Friday evening said the weather would stay mainly dry. Because of the system at sea, rain may begin in many parts of the country after 18 November, according to reports citing meteorologists. Meteorologist Khandaker Hafiz Ahmed told Independent Television that rain is possible across the country after 18 November.

Fishermen and the coast

Rough seas are possible, so fishermen have been told not to go into the deep sea, and the IMD has advised fishing boats already at sea to return to the coast. Squally winds may blow over the Andaman Sea and much of the Bay of Bengal. No warning signal for Bangladesh's seaports had been reported at the time of writing. If a cyclone forms, follow the BMD's special bulletins.

Date by date

• 14 November: the southeast Bay of Bengal low becomes well marked.
• 15 November: likely to intensify into a depression.
• 16 November evening: may become Cyclone Akvan.
• 18 November: may become a severe cyclone; rain possible in Bangladesh from then on.

What to do now

• Follow the BMD website and official radio and TV bulletins, and avoid unverified posts on social media.
• If you live on the coast, check with local officials and Cyclone Preparedness Programme volunteers what to do if a signal is raised.
• If you plan travel, outdoor events or harvesting after 18 November, allow for rain.
• Keeping your phone charged, a torch and essential medicines at hand is a good habit.

A November memory

Today, 15 November, is the anniversary of Cyclone Sidr, which struck Bangladesh's coast in 2007. November is one of the main cyclone seasons in the Bay of Bengal, so the sensible approach is to stay calm and follow official BMD forecasts. This report will be updated as the system develops.